What we are doing in this Alternative Business Scenarios project is an activity as old as humanity. We are using our imaginations and we are telling stories.

Like all good stories, the ones we have to tell today address the big ideas – tales of good and evil, of taking on urgent challenges and quests, of facing riddles and dilemmas, and all in the cause of advancing the wellbeing of those in our family, our clan, our tribe, our nation.

And, like all good stories – they work well if they manage both to scare and inspire you in equal measure.

That was the task that the Australian Business Foundation had in mind when it undertook a project nine months ago to develop alternative scenarios for the future of business in Australia to the year 2015.

The Australian Business Foundation is a private sector, independent think-tank, created at arm's length from our founder and patron, Australian Business Ltd, to take a fresh, practical and long-term approach to investigating and devising innovative solutions for boosting Australia's competitiveness, jobs and prosperity.

We are in the business of advancing knowledge, of expanding mindsets and debates, and of fostering informed choices and imaginative actions.

The tool of scenario planning suited our purposes particularly well. It is a means of making sense of how the future could pan out for businesses and their stakeholders.

It is a vehicle that can give people some foresight about discontinuous changes, both the unpredictable shocks and the as yet unimagined opportunities, allowing them to anticipate a range of different outcomes and how these might be handled.

Scenarios also offer a set of early warning signals, indicators of the possible direction and destination of change, so that we don't have to be totally at the mercy of volatile environments and random and surprising events.

So, the Australian Business Foundation called on the services of GBN Australia, the international network of futurists and learning specialists, experienced in scenario planning and other strategic management tools, to guide us in our task of unveiling plausible alternative pictures of the future for business in Australia over the next 15 years or so.

How did we do this? From a process which included:

• literature searches and media monitoring;
• desk research and sampling opinion about likely drivers of change and critical uncertainties for business in Australia;
• interviews with experts and other "remarkable people" for their insights on the future;
• analysis and commentary from a diverse range of business, social and educational specialists including GBN's international colleagues;
• three scenario building workshops involving over 40 individuals from diverse walks of life and areas of interest; and
• focus groups and consultations around Australia to "road test" and verify the emerging scenarios, including those with business people, school children and tomorrow's political leaders.

Our key focus in this work is on the different alternative futures for business in Australia. But, our end goal is how business can contribute to a better future for all Australians, as we approach a new century and a new millennium.

In our project to formulate different business scenarios, the focal question was:

HOW CAN WE MAXIMISE OUR ABILITY TO GENERATE WEALTH AND JOBS, TO INTEGRATE INTO GLOBAL MARKETS AND TO CONTRIBUTE TO A RISING STANDARD OF LIVING FOR THE AUSTRALIAN COMMUNITY AS A WHOLE?

To answer this question, we examined a variety of trends, forces for change and critical uncertainties likely to impact on the Australian business environment over the next 15 years.

Among the factors that received our attention were the following:-

• Globalisation – particularly the free flow of goods, services, information, capital and skills – has been an increasing trend over the decade to 2000, but its path has often been erratic and inconsistent. Globalisation delivers both beneficiaries and casualties, and the question is whether disaffection and the resurgence of calls for individual identity, cultural protectionism and national sovereignty will derail the trend.
• The sheer transforming power of advances in information and networking technologies to the way we do business, the things we produce, how we act as consumers and the very bases of competition in industry and commerce.
• Both the advent of new technologies such as microelectronics, nanotechnology, genetics, new materials and biotechnology and the convergence and recombination of old technologies in the areas of multimedia, information technology, and telecommunications are likely to revolutionise old industries and preconceptions about how we go about our daily lives.
• The rising importance of continuous innovation and lifelong learning in a world competing on the basis of wide and fast dissemination of information and knowledge. But, at the same time, recognising the limits to the value of intellectual property and its protections, given the relative ease of information flow and loss of first mover advantage. Related to this is also the recognition of the limits to the power of governments to effectively regulate the knowledge economy.
• Rethinking international business location decisions, where "place" is less significant than "people".
• The increasing risk to the social fabric of divisions worldwide between the information-rich, and the information-poor.
• The critical importance of environmental sustainability, whether due to pressure from community and consumer interests, the end result of a series of environmental crises or market opportunities available from sound environmental management practices and "green" products and know-how.
• Consideration of Australia's place and scale at the fringes of geopolitics, where in global terms Australia is a taker, not shaper, of trends. This extends beyond the political arena to issues of organisation and location of global enterprise and brands, positioning of economic power in the newly rearranged value chains of the knowledge economy and access to commercial advantages from new technologies.
• At the same time, not underestimating the importance to Australia of political stability, the rule of law, sound financial architecture and social inclusion achievements. In this context, the level of immigration and population policies remain critical to Australia's growth capacity and social cohesion.

From these considerations, we generated four alternative scenarios for how the future could pan out for business in Australia to the year 2015. In short, the scenarios are:

First Global Nation – characterised by globalisation of business and the online economy and where Australia successfully finds itself a place.

The globalised, open, online economy continues without significant setback or social dislocation. We are an online, interconnected world, engaged in electronic commerce, fashioning new transforming technologies and redefining the businesses we are in.

Knowledge industries become the strategic and rewarding areas of endeavour in this world, predicated on new forms of consumer power, entrepreneur-driven change and a peaceful world of open markets and global economic growth.

Australia capitalises on this free trade, highly networked environment by marrying solid and far-reaching tax and economic reforms with activist industry development programs, educational excellence and the growth of successful technology-based enterprises with global reach.

Sound the Retreat – a story of the decay of globalisation, forcing Australia to revalue its bilateral business relationships as multilateral ones become impossible.

Globalisation proves to be no sure thing. Instead of the economic prosperity and social stability it promised, globalisation as often delivered economic turmoil, political and social tensions and job losses and resource overuse for many of the world's people. There was a backlash against flattened national borders and cultural homogeneity. Global activists effectively used the web, the main tool of the online wired world, as an anti-globalisation soapbox.

There was a reversion to trade barriers, capital and immigration controls and protectionist, nationalist policies of all sorts. This resulted in economic downturn, a widespread capital retreat and a loss of investor confidence around the world.

Australia was a victim of this retreat from globalisation. But, thrown on our own resources, we pin our hopes on personalised business relationships, reinforced by our political relations with individual nations, and play to our strengths as a business and cultural gateway to Asia.

Brave Old World – where Australia rests on its laurels and does not see the need or the urgency to pursue the emerging opportunities of the globalised knowledge economy in any systematic fashion.

Globalisation, open markets, increasing amounts of economic activity online and the value-adding impact of the knowledge economy on traditional industries as well as high tech ones are the features of this world.

What is at issue is Australia's sense of urgency and determination to capture value and take advantage of the new opportunities and markets on offer.

Australia is complacent about its relatively strong economic performance. We have a tendency towards a laconic "she'll be right" attitude and a pride in Australia's fair go ethos and social protections. These factors are accompanied by economic reform fatigue, a resurgence of protectionist sentiment and a reluctance to embrace strong, strategic industry development policies.

The consequences are slow to be felt and belied by some notable success stories, but are nonetheless dire. Australia's industry and economic base narrows, our skills and educational advantages erode, few successful new enterprises are created or emergent technologies commercialised and our ability to generate wealth from the newest, fast growing, high return sectors diminishes.

Green is Gold – a story of Australia caught up in the strengthening of international environmental regulations and agreements and how this plays out for business.

Recognition of the interdependence of business performance and environmental management was evident in the 1980's and 1990's with early adoption of environmental standards by some large companies and pursuit of the commercial opportunities from being "clean and green" by various enterprises large and small.

But, environmental management did not become a mainstream and widespread business concern until a number of pressures combine to force change. These included:

• the introduction of energy taxes in response to energy price cuts and increased demand;
• conditions for a cost-effective shift to new "clean" technologies;
• increase in the quality and dissemination of information about the detrimental effects on the environment of unfettered resource use and economic growth;
• increased and more effective global activism by the green movement using the internet;
• a series of localised but catastrophic environmental disasters; and
• increased public concern and pressure resulting in strengthening and global enforcement of international environmental regulations and protocols.

Australia, being a fossil fuel dependent economy with environmental pressures on both its agriculture and tourism industries, suffers the effects of these stronger international environmental laws and agreements. But, it is able to capitalise on its strengths in bioscience, in environmental management products and services and in its credentials as one of the earth's more pristine and unspoilt environments. Business opportunities for Australia are created from global environmental management acumen.

But, the real issue is: SO WHAT? That's the question that we need to answer today and in other places where these scenarios are discussed.

You are part of a process to provoke reactions and thoughtful commentary on our alternative scenarios for the future and to rattle the cages of the widest possible range of audiences throughout Australia.

Today and later elsewhere in boardrooms, political party conferences, government offices, lecture theatres and community halls, the Australian Business Foundation will tell these different stories about Australia's possible futures and ask people to reflect on:

• how robust or risk is Australia, in the light of these scenarios;
• what are the critical responses we need to make; and
• what does my business/sector/organisation/community need to do.

In other words, how worried and how motivated do these stories make me and what am I going to do about it!