It is natural that a Graduating Class gazes into the future; that you ponder options and choices with a mixture of excitement and trepidation.

So, why don't you join me this morning on a journey to three parallel universes, three different visions of our economy and our society, three possible alternative futures for Australia of particular interest to you as graduates of the Faculty of Business, your friends and families.

She'll Be Right

Firstly, we visit the universe of "She'll Be Right".

People here are stoic. They've seen booms and busts, droughts and floods, good times and bad. They have faith in the cycles – the good times always roll around again. You just have to wait it out, set aside something for a rainy day, and make sure that you never take too many unhedged risks.

Commodities and traditional manufacturing industries are the mainstay of the economy here, but enhanced by the uptake of new technologies and the fruits of the information revolution.

The universe of "She'll Be Right" prides itself on finding the right mix between its established industrial base, where it is a world leader and the cautious embrace of 'new economy' enterprises only when the business fundamentals are sound. The result has been a consistent and enviable growth rate.

The push towards free trade worldwide, while it has its critics, has opened up new markets for local products and services.

While traditional manufacturing is losing ground, contract manufacturing, services-based manufacturing and other service industries are growing fast.
Unemployment, however, remains a persistent problem in "She'll Be Right", especially for young people and unskilled or semi-skilled males.

Governments have tried various programs to boost employment – multimedia activities, land care, traineeships in retail industries, work for the dole schemes and the like. But, there seems to be a mismatch between where and what jobs are created and the type of people available to fill them.

The citizens of "She'll Be Right" generally don't have a high regard for government and for politicians, and think the best thing government can do is keep out of their way.

And this is just what governments in this universe do. They take a hands-off approach. They try to set up a flexible, open and low cost business environment without too many rules and regulations. They believe this is the best path to boosting business activity and jobs and to securing the greatest economic benefit for the widest range of local people.

We'll All Be Ruined!

The next parallel universe to visit is "We'll All Be Ruined".

As the name implies, people here are pretty gloomy and pessimistic, arguably with good reason.

Business and farm bankruptcies are all too common. Newspapers report closures of manufacturing companies that have served the area for generations, providing jobs, using local products and services and being the mainstay of the economy. Some of these companies and brands are Australian icons, lost off-shore or rationalised after changes in corporate ownership.

Worse, corporate greed and fraud, gross mismanagement and a failure of governance by Boards and their advisers have burned many ordinary people, whose savings, entitlements and even jobs have disappeared without trace.

Banks, government services and community facilities are also being rationalised and restructured. Increasingly, and with more and more frustration, the citizens of "We'll All Be Ruined" are dealing with voicemail and electronic transactions, not with face to face, shop front personalised services.
Local infrastructure is running down. It's harder to earn a viable living. The kids are leaving town or getting into strife.

If you have a job, then it is likely that you are working longer hours. Unemployment is on the increase and most jobs are much more insecure than they were a decade ago.

There is a bigger gap between the rich and the poor, and social, even racial, tensions seem more evident. Community spirit is on the wane and egalitarianism is a ghost of the past.

If the people in "She'll Be Right" failed to recognise any losers, then the people in "We'll All Be Ruined" believe they are all losers.

And in the face of this, governments seem totally impotent and self-serving. Consequently, there is increasing dissatisfaction with mainstream politicians, and more and more independent, single-issue or radical candidates are winning in politics at all levels.


Give It A Go

This brings us to our final universe, "Give It A Go".

In this universe, they are under no illusions about their strengths and weaknesses. "Give It A Go" is essentially a small commodities-dependent economy with an industrial base more suited to the 19th century than to the 21st.

Business is highly concentrated, with an over-reliance on a small number of large transnational corporations. They are essentially a branch plant economy.

While there are many smaller enterprises, none seems able to achieve the scale required to serve global markets.

There are also many gaps in local production and supply chains, so it is necessary to import much of what this universe consumes, to the detriment of its terms of trade.

But, on the other hand, "Give It A Go" is blessed with skilled and inventive people, a technology-adept population, a sound and widespread education system, world-class scientific, engineering and research capabilities, and long-standing investment in sophisticated social, physical and information infrastructure.

"Give It A Go" realises that if they do nothing, they will be a casualty of the inevitable forces of globalisation, with its ever more mobile capital, investment and jobs.

So, with a realistic understanding of their place in the world, they decide to carve out their own niche in the high growth, clever industries of the future.

They turn their dense industrial concentration into a positive – by making the biggest also the best; the best employers, the best investors in R&D, the best exporters and innovators.

They focus on enterprise-building, so that more companies are playing on the world stage from a local base. They encourage new players to enter business and boost smaller firms onto a more sustainable, high growth path.

They redress their lack of scale and critical mass by helping to forge clusters and strategic alliances between firms, and with other important bodies like educational and research institutions.

They respond to increasing trade liberalisation by leveraging themselves into global markets as a centre of excellence in R&D or design, or as a key manufacturing, service or distribution node for the Asian Pacific region.

But even in this "Give It A Go" universe, unemployment remains a problem. Actions to shift onto a more outward-looking innovation-rich, high growth path don't always easily translate into new jobs that match with the people who want work. Nor does it stop the braindrain of their best and brightest going overseas.

So, they look after the 'losers' with structural adjustment activities, such as labour market programs, enterprise development initiatives, retraining and lifelong learning schemes. And they tilt at the braindrain by keeping in touch with their expatriates, seeking to make them virtual ambassadors at large for "Give It A Go".

"Give It A Go" manages to do all this only because it has painstakingly created a political and community consensus about what kind of society they want to be, and how to go about achieving this. They create and pursue their own competitive advantage, secure in their own identity and confident in their abilities.


Preferred Futures for Australians of the Future

Each of these three alternative futures for Australia is equally plausible.

More to the point, it can be argued that they are the same future, just viewed from three different angles.

Which one best reflects reality depends on the actions taken and the leadership shown by those of you graduating today, by hundreds of others like you around the nation, and by all our business, civic and community leaders in every township, rural village, suburb and city throughout Australia.

I believe those three universes we have visited, map out the choices facing Australia. Can we meet the challenge of competing on the basis of cleverness and know-how, rather than on the basis of historic strength in declining industries with low cost structures and low returns.

By understanding each of the universes, you will be able to address the complexities of living and working in the future.

You cannot have thriving communities without a solid, balanced and sustainable economic base, well represented in the innovative, high growth, value-added industries of the 21st century.

This does not stop at the high-tech, science-based industries, but covers the gradual adaptations and improvements that can occur even in the most mature "rust-belt" industries. Innovation lies as much in doing old things more intelligently, as it does in creating new breakthrough ideas.

Whether Australia makes the grade in the future depends on having loads of prosperous, innovative, sustainable, competitive business enterprises, capable of serving world markets from their home here in Australia and prepared to give it a go. Such enterprises recognise that their social, as well as their economic, performance counts for the nation's prosperity.

Fostering such innovative enterprises and the clever, imaginative and nimble people who work in them is at the heart of the challenge facing Australia today.

That is the challenge before you as you embark on your careers, armed with hard-won degrees and hopefully with the mentality of the "Give it a Go" universe.

Today's world is global, knowledge-rich, interconnected, fast and requiring constant learning and renewal.

You may not always live and work in Australia. The likelihood of you remaining in the same profession all your working life is slim. You probably will have multiple and overlapping career paths.

You will have the opportunity to switch from being an employer to an employee to an entrepreneur and back again, all dependent on the unique repertoire of skills, knowledge and expertise you fashion for yourself - starting with the qualification in your hands today.

Someone said if you are not living on the edge, then you are taking up too much room!

Living on the edge conjures up ideas of risk-taking, persisting in the face of failure, a voracious, relentless pursuit of new ideas and undiscovered opportunities, and the ability to realise alternative futures that are something more than mere extrapolations of past history and trends.

When thinking about the alternative futures open to you, remember that the best way to predict the future is to invent it!