Details

Agenda: 

Introduction to the Alternative Futures for Business to 2015

• Presentation by Narelle Kennedy, CEO, Australian Business Foundation

What does the Knowledge Economy mean?

• Guided discussion by Susan Oliver, MD, Futures Alliance

Local success story

• Presentation by Rina Hore, Managing Director, BOSCO Manufacturing

Groups discussions answering the questions:

1. What are the biggest threats for my business stemming from the knowledge economy?
2. What would my business look like if I was competing on the basis of knowledge?
3. What are the three key pressing actions I must take now to prepare my business of the knowledge economy?

Background

The Australian Business Foundation is a private sector, independent think-tank, created at arms length from its founder and patron, Australian Business Ltd, the leading business services organisation, to investigate and devise innovative solutions for boosting Australia's competitiveness, jobs and prosperity.

With the services of GBN Australia, the international network of futurists and learning specialists, the Australian Business Foundation undertook a scenario planning project for the future of business in Australia over the next fifteen years. The results of this project, including four plausible alternative pictures of the future, are documented in the Australian Business Foundation publication entitled Alternative Futures: Scenarios for Business in Australia to the Year 2015.

Methodology

This project was an exercise in scenario planning and included the following activities:

• literature searches and media monitoring;
• desk research and sampling opinion about likely drivers of change and critical uncertainties for business in Australia;
• interviews with experts and other "remarkable people" for their insights on the future;
• analysis and commentary from a diverse range of business, social and educational specialists including GBN's international colleagues;
• three scenario building workshops involving over 40 individuals from diverse walks of life and areas of interest; and
• focus groups and consultations around Australia to "road test" and verify the emerging scenarios, including those with business people, school children and tomorrow's political leaders.

The key focus in this work was on the different alternative scenarios for business in Australia. But the end goal was how business can contribute to a better future for all Australians, as we approach a new century and a new millennium.

The focal question for the Australian Business Foundation's future scenarios project was:

How can we maximise our ability to generate wealth and jobs, to integrate into global markets and to contribute to a rising standard of living for the Australian community as a whole?

Drivers, trends & uncertainties

A variety of trends, forces for change and critical uncertainties likely to impact on the business environment over the next 15 years or so were examined.

Among the factors that received attention were the following:

The progress of globalisation in the form of the free flow of goods, services, information, capital and skills worldwide. And the likelihood that creating global brands and securing a place in international markets will be crucial to the future, both for individual firms and for Australia as a whole.

The sheer transforming power of advances in information, online and networking technologies on the way we do business, what and how we consume, and on the very bases of competition in industry and commerce.

The rise of the knowledge-economy, where the intangibles of know-how, innovation, intellectual and human resources become more important to competition and business growth than the usual assets of plant, equipment and hard infrastructure.

The far-reaching impact on the industrial landscape of both the advent of new technologies (such as micro-electronics, nanotechnology, genetics, new materials and biotechnology) and the convergence and recombination of old technologies in IT, broadcasting, telecommunications and multimedia.

The rising importance of continuous innovation and lifelong learning in a world competing on the basis of wide and fast dissemination of information and knowledge. But, at the same time, recognising the limits to the value of intellectual property and its protections, given the relative ease of information flow and loss of first mover advantage. Related to this is also the recognition of the limits to the power of governments to effectively regulate the knowledge economy.

Consideration of Australia's place and scale at the fringes of geopolitics, where in global terms Australia is a taker, not shaper, of trends. This extends beyond the political arena to issues of organisation and location of global enterprise and brands, positioning of economic power in the newly rearranged value chains of the knowledge economy and access to commercial advantages from new technologies.

At the same time, not underestimating the importance to Australia of political stability, the rule of law, sound financial architecture and social inclusion achievements. In this context, the level of immigration and population policies remain critical to Australia's future growth capacity and ability to sustain its ethos of egalitarianism as a multicultural society.

The social cohesion of the way the world is moving, whether we have a growing divide between the information rich and the information poor; whether we have more losers than winners from globalisation; increasing information and activism on the social impacts of business decisions, like the use of genetically modified foods; the increasing mainstream concern about environmental issues and factoring these into the bottom line of business.

The four scenarios

1. First Global Nation

• Globalisation of business.
• Online, open networked economy.
• Global growth and peace.
• Knowledge industries predominate.
• New forms of consumer power.
• High innovation.
• Australia is a global player
  - tax and economic reform
  - activist industry development
  - educational excellence
  - new Aussie enterprises with global reach.

2. Sound the Retreat

• Decay of globalisation.
• Backlash against flattened national borders and cultural homogeneity.
• Trade barriers, capital and immigration controls, protectionist policies.
• Economic downturn, capital retreat, loss of investment.
• Australia a victim, but relies on bilateral business relationships to survive.

3. Brave Old World

• She'll be right attitude.
• Australia rests on its laurels – economic performance, social protections.
• Online, wired, globalised and open world.
• Economic reform fatigue and protectionist resurgence.
• Aversion to strategic industry development policies.
• Australia misses the boat of the new economy.

4. Green is Gold

• Environmental management becomes mainstream and widespread business concern.
• Energy taxes.
• New clean technologies viable.
• More environmental information, concern and activism.
• Stronger international environmental regulations and effective enforcement.
• Australia as a fossil fuel dependent economy suffers.
• Turn-around based on Australia's environmental management strengths and acumen.

How to use the scenarios

The scenarios are best used to provoke discussion and strategic responses as they apply to your organisation, your goals and future directions. Reflect on:

• How robust or at our risk are our strategies if the future panned out in any one of these directions?
• Are some of our strategies productive no matter which of the scenarios proves most likely?
• What critical responses do we need to make in the light of these scenarios?

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